Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) has downgraded several Australian miners following a broad update to its commodity price forecasts, citing softening demand and structural market shifts.
Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) has been lowered to a Neutral rating, with the investment bank flagging downside risk to iron ore prices amid potential steel production cuts in China. Citi expects these developments to weigh on iron ore demand, curbing upside for producers.
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In the lithium sector, IGO Limited (ASX:IGO) and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX:PLS) have also been downgraded to Neutral, while Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) has been cut to a Sell rating. The revisions follow a 15–20% downgrade in Citi’s lithium price forecasts for the next three years.
Citi sees lithium as the most vulnerable of the commodities under its coverage, saying the market now requires “lower-for-longer” prices to clear excess supply.
Elsewhere, Citi cut its aluminium forecast for 2026 by 8% to US$2,390 per tonne, although its long-term projection was raised 7% to US$3,000 per tonne, citing new global smelting capacity as China approaches its 45 million tonnes per annum cap.
