Those projections are not abstract for India. The country is already the world’s second-largest producer of primary aluminium, accounting for roughly 6 per cent of global output in 2023, and has seen production more than double over the past two decades from about 1.7 million tonnes in 2003 to just over 4.1 million tonnes in 2023. However, the same period has also seen a sharp rise in imports of metal and scrap, suggesting that India is sliding into the 2050 supercycle, with both opportunities and vulnerabilities built into its aluminium system.
Where India really stands in 2025
On the production side, India’s primary aluminium output has been on a modest upward trend. Ministry of Mines data and industry summaries show primary production rising from around 3.6 million tonnes in FY2021 to roughly 4.2 million tonnes by FY2024. Ministry of Mines estimates place India’s share of world primary production at about 5.7 per cent in FY2024-25. On those numbers, India is a serious global producer, but not yet a dominant one.
Consumption tells a different story. An earlier National Aluminium Company (NALCO) investor disclosures summarising sector data suggest India’s aluminium consumption in 2023-2024 was around 4.9 million tonnes, with demand projected to reach about 8.3 million tonnes by 2030, implying a CAGR of 8 per cent per annum. Other market assessments point to a similar trajectory, with some placing expected demand near 9-10 million tonnes by the early 2030s.
