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Low inventory support vs off-season demand: Short-term aluminium prices lack clear drivers

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Update time : 2025-05-28 16:14:04
Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminium 2507 contract opened at RMB 20,165 per tonne, with a high of RMB 20,205 per tonne, a low of RMB 20,130 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,180 per tonne, up RMB 140 per tonne or 0.70 per cent from the previous close. LME aluminium opened at USD 2,465.5 per tonne yesterday, with a high of USD 2,488.5 per tonne, a low of USD 2,442.5 per tonne, and closed at USD 2,483 per tonne, up USD 17 per tonne or 0.69 per cent.

Macro: (1) The EU is seeking to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, with a focus on key industries, as well as tariff and non-tariff barriers. Trump has expressed appreciation for the EU's proactive stance. (Neutral ★)

(2) Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that in the face of inflation risks posed by Trump's tariff policies, he favours temporarily maintaining stable interest rates until the impact of tariff hikes on inflation becomes clearer. He also warned against overlooking the impact of Trump's tariffs on global supply prices. (Bullish ★)

Fundamentals: (1) According to SMM statistics, as of May 27, aluminium ingot inventory in Guangdong was 223,000 tonnes; in Wuxi, it was 142,000 tonnes; and in Gongyi, it was 49,000 tonnes. The total inventory across the three locations was 414,000 tonnes, an increase of 1,000 tonnes from the previous trading day. (Bearish ★)

(2) Based on recommendations from the Technical Committee on Mining Rights and the National Mining Committee, the Minister of Mines and Geology announced a decree via national television on Monday, May 26, 2025, revoking the exploration licenses of 129 mining companies operating in Guinea. (Bullish ★)

(3) On May 27, LME aluminium inventory was recorded at 381,600 tonnes, a decrease of 3,000 tonnes or 0.78 per cent from the previous day. Over the past week, LME aluminium inventory has decreased by a cumulative 9,350.00 tonnes or 2.39 per cent. Over the past month, LME aluminium inventory has decreased by a cumulative 40,000 tonnes or 9.49 per cent. (Bullish ★)

Primary aluminium market: On Tuesday morning, the centre of the front-month SHFE aluminium contract fell significantly, briefly breaking below the RMB 20,000 per tonne threshold. In eastern China, due to recent inventory drawdowns, suppliers generally showed strong reluctance to budge on prices.

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