Macro front: US President Trump said Iran could face a “very heavy blow.” He said that due to Iran’s actions, the US was “seriously considering” expanding the scope of strikes, including some areas and groups that had not previously been listed as targets. Iranian President Pezeshkian delivered a speech calling for national unity to defend Iran and said Iran would never surrender unconditionally. (Bullish ★) Mediterranean Shipping Company said it would levy an emergency bunker surcharge on all cargo shipped from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to the Indian subcontinent, the Red Sea, and East Africa. (Bullish ★)
Fundamentals: Supply side, newly commissioned aluminium projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola continued to ramp up production, but escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may have affected production or shipments at some aluminium smelters, and daily average production is expected to decline. Demand side, after the holiday, as downstream players gradually resumed operations, demand recovered and the proportion of liquid aluminium rebounded notably. According to data as of this Thursday, the weekly proportion of liquid aluminium rebounded by about 8 percentage points w-o-w. Downstream weekly operating rates rose further. Specifically: delivery expectations for power grid orders in March were clear, and demand for aluminium wire and cable recovered well; demand for can stock, autos, batteries, and other products continued to recover, driving a recovery in related segments; the recovery in construction demand was relatively slow; starting April 1, export tax rebates for PV products will be canceled, and the PV industry’s relatively high operating rate is expected to continue through month-end March.
