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SMM review of alumina and aluminium production in November and forecast for December 2025

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Update time : 2025-12-17 17:39:23
SMM's monthly aluminium and alumina production data is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and help industry chain participants and investors gain a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in November 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.47 per cent Y-o-Y but decreased by 2.82 per cent M-o-M. Starting in November, aluminium consumption gradually transitioned from the peak season to the off-season, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates and a reduction in the proportion of liquid aluminium.

The industry's proportion of liquid aluminium dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 77.3 per cent this month, a smaller decline than initially expected, primarily due to:

1) further capacity expansion at some processing plants near aluminium smelters, which increased the proportion of liquid aluminium;

2) in the second half of November, aluminium prices retreated from highs, while aluminium billet processing fees strengthened, leading to better production willingness among billet plants. Based on SMM's liquid aluminium proportion data, domestic aluminium casting ingot volume in November decreased by 13.4 per cent Y-o-Y and fell by 0.78 per cent M-o-M to around 828,000 tonnes.

Capacity changes: As of the end of November, SMM statistics showed domestic existing aluminium capacity was approximately 46.12 million tonnes, while domestic operating aluminium capacity was around 44.225 million tonnes.

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