Macro front: This Thursday, Jan 29, Beijing time, the US Fed is expected to announce its first monetary policy interest rate decision of the year. Goldman Sachs expects the impact of this decision on the market to likely be "uneventful," with the Fed only making minor adjustments to its monetary policy stance. However, if news emerges from the White House regarding Powell's successor, it could have a greater impact on the market. (Neutral) In 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will deeply implement special actions to boost consumption, focusing on three aspects: introducing policies, organising events, and optimising scenarios. (Bullish★)
Fundamentals: According to an SMM survey, China's ESS battery cabin shipments in 2025 were about 400 GWh, accounting for over 80 per cent of the global share. Based on SMM's calculated ESS single consumption of 1,780 tonne per GWh and global ESS battery cabin shipments, the corresponding aluminium semis demand for global ESS in 2025 was 850,000 tonne, of which domestic consumption accounted for about 710,000 tonne of aluminium semis. It is estimated that domestic demand for aluminium semis for ESS in 2026 will still see an increase of 280,000 tonnes.
