The supply to the European factories continues to face supply constraints amid sanctions on major producer Russia, while the US enforces a 50 per cent aluminium import levy since June 4 to strengthen domestic smelting capacity and curb import reliance.
Although market speculation points to a potential halving of tariffs or a Canada exemption, physical aluminium price premiums continue to trade at elevated levels. The August commodity exchange of aluminium premium surged past 70 cents per pound (USD 1,543 per tonne), reflecting an almost 90 per cent increase since late May, with market sentiment further shaped by trends in China's aluminium production.
Aluminium production in June
As of June 2025, the aluminium production declined 3.23 per cent month-on-month, though operating capacity in July is expected to remain robust. The annual output in June rose 3.4 per cent to 3.81 million tonnes, with January to June production rising by 3.3 per cent year-on-year to 22.38 million tonnes.
Aluminium exports in July
Aluminium exports in July increased to 542,000 tonnes from 489,000 tonnes in June, reflecting steady international demand. In Japan, aluminium stocks across three major ports fell 0.4 per cent in July to 315,400 tonnes, indicating tightening supply in Asia.
