Aluminum and steel will be the most impacted metals under President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on imports from top suppliers Canada and Mexico, according to Citigroup analysts.
The two US trade partners are the biggest providers of the metals to the US and Trump’s plan to levy tariffs on imports of the metals will result in higher steel and aluminum prices across the US, according to analysts led by Alexander Hacking. The US gets about 70% of its aluminum from abroad, with 60% of that from Canada. Steel imports account for 24% of the American supply, with Canada providing a quarter of the amount and Mexico about 15%.
A 25% tariff as announced by Trump on Monday would likely cause steel prices to rise by $100 to $150 a short ton, the analysts said in a Nov. 26 note. For US aluminum prices, the Midwest premium over that of the London Metal Exchange could more than double to as much as 50 cents more — a move that could benefit six US smelters. Still, the analysts warned “it could take years to reconfigure this supply chain.”
“Equity investors would likely be cautious in pricing duration on any windfall profits — assuming that this is seen as a negotiating tactic/temporary impact, in our view,” the analysts wrote. “During Trump’s first term administration, we saw steel buyers stockpile on tariff headlines and would expect something similar this time around.”
