The paradox raises pressing questions as to why the world’s biggest producer and consumer of aluminium needs to import. Why does it continue to export semi-finished goods instead of keeping them at home for its own industries? The answers lie in a mix of capacity caps, pricing dynamics, trade policy, and geopolitics.
Domestic supply at the ceiling, demand still rising
The first explanation is rather simple. Since 2021, Beijing has capped national primary aluminium capacity at 45 million tonnes per year, part of its pledge to control energy consumption and emissions. With smelting notoriously power-hungry, authorities have curbed unchecked expansion in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. By 2024, output had already climbed to 43 million tonnes, leaving little room for further growth without breaching the ceiling.
