The target is consistent with an earlier official statement indicating that Inner Mongolia plans to produce more than 1.25 billion tonnes of raw coal in 2026, of which about 780 million tonnes will be earmarked for the national energy security mission.
In 2025, the region's raw coal output reached 1.297 billion tonnes, down 1 per cent from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The production guidance effectively sets a ceiling for Inner Mongolia's coal output this year and potentially over the next five years, without signalling any reductions. This underscores coal's continued central role in China's energy mix despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy, Mysteel Global notes.
However, the plan indicates that future capacity growth will mainly come from large, modern mines, while expansions of mid- and small-scale operations will remain constrained. The region will also continue developing coal reserve systems to provide buffers during peak demand periods or potential global supply disruptions.
Similarly, Shanxi province, whose raw coal output reached 1.3 billion tonnes in 2025, said in early February that it will stabilise production at roughly the same level in 2026, clearly indicating that coal supply to the market will remain steady.
As Shanxi has maintained annual output at around 1.3 billion tonnes for at least the past four years, the 2026 target suggests that this level will serve as a production ceiling in the coming years, making any significant increase unlikely.
Instead, the province is focusing on intelligent upgrades in the coal sector, with plans announced to complete smart-mining retrofits at 60 coal mines this year, according to the local government.
