Spot-futures price spread daily: According to SMM data, on March 9, the SMM ADC12 spot price posted a theoretical premium of RMB 880 per tonne over the 10:15 closing price of the cast aluminium alloy, the most-traded contract (AD2604).
Warrant daily: SHFE data showed that on March 9, total registered cast aluminium alloy warrants were 58,099 tonnes, down 630 tonnes from the previous trading day. Of this, Shanghai totalled 5,409 tonne, down 209 tonne; Guangdong 19,813 tonne, down 487 tonne; Jiangsu 7,419 tonne, down 58 tonne; Zhejiang 19,417 tonne, down 541 tonne; Chongqing 4,234 tonne, down 60 tonne; and Sichuan 1,807 tonne, up 725 tonne.
Aluminium scrap: Geopolitical positives continued to fluctuate, driving yesterday’s spot primary aluminium to rise sharply by RMB 750 per tonne from the previous trading day, and the aluminium scrap market rose across the board in tandem. For the price difference between A00 aluminium and aluminium scrap, on March 9, the price difference between A00 aluminium and mixed aluminium extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was RMB 3,748 per tonne, and the price difference between A00 aluminium and shredded aluminium tensile scrap was RMB 2,834 per tonne. The aluminium scrap market was expected to hold up well at elevated levels this week, with the mainstream range for shredded aluminium tensile scrap (priced based on aluminium content) running around RMB 20,300-20,900 per tonne (tax excluded).
Post-holiday production order gradually recovered, and supply release further loosened, but downstream processing enterprises’ order recovery was slow; overall transactions were expected to remain sluggish, and the supply and demand tug-of-war was set to intensify in the short term. Close attention should be paid to the impact of the US-Iran conflict on primary aluminium supply and transportation, downstream resumption progress, and changes in recycling policies, and vigilance is needed against heightened price fluctuation risks.
