From a technical analysis perspective, the MA moving average system maintained a bullish alignment (MA5: 20,928 > MA10: 20,903 > MA30: 20,818), with the price holding above the moving averages; the MACD indicator continued its golden cross (DIF: 63.3 > DEA: 58.6); however, trading volume was 51,011 lots, down 26,366 lots WoW. Considering recent highs and lows (the monthly low around 20,600, the high around 21,200), the resistance level is expected in the 21,280-21,480 range and the support level in the 20,530-20,750 range.
Macro front: 1. There are significant differences within the US Fed regarding the interest rate cut path. New Fed Governor Milan supported a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at the October policy meeting, while Fed Governor Waller advocated maintaining a cautious pace of 25-basis-point cuts per meeting to address the weak labour market. Fed Governor Moussallem stated that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he might support another interest rate cut path. (Bullish ★)
2. Trump and Putin's planned meeting in Budapest raised hopes for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.65 per cent at USD 57.24 per barrel; Brent crude finally closed up 0.69 per cent at USD 61.26 per barrel. (Bullish ★)
3. He Lifeng held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. Both sides agreed to hold a new round of China-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. (Bullish ★)
Fundamentals: Supply side, operating aluminium capacity showed no further rise, remaining around 44.06 million tonnes. Demand side, as of last Thursday, the domestic proportion of liquid aluminium recorded 77.11 per cent, up 0.02 percentage points WoW; the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminium processing enterprises recorded 62.5 per cent, flat WoW.
Among them, the operating rate of primary alloy increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points, while that of secondary alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points; the operating rates of other processing sectors remained stable.
