Middle East geopolitical risks heighten supply concerns; aluminium prices expected to trend strongly higher in the short term
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Update time : 2026-03-09 15:54:37
Futures: Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract closed at RMB 25,180 per tonne, surging 2.55 per cent. The price strongly broke above all moving-average systems, with MA5 (24,682), MA10 (24,302.5), and MA20 (23,935.5) forming a standard bullish alignment, confirming a clear medium-term uptrend. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (262.37) and DEA (135.19) accelerated higher above the zero line, and the histogram expanded to 254.36, indicating continuously strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume rose markedly to 313,000 lots, reflecting strong market participation. The suggested core trading range for SHFE aluminium is 25,200-25,800. LME aluminium closed at USD 3,431 per tonne, with an intraday range of 3,277.5-3,449.5. The price has broken above all major moving averages (the moving-average system is in a bullish alignment; although the MA5 value appears abnormal, the chart shows the price is well above the moving averages). MACD DIFF (60.17) and DEA (29.41) maintained a golden cross above the zero line, with the histogram at 61.53, indicating a healthy uptrend. The suggested core trading range for LME aluminium is 3,430-3,500.
Macro front: US President Trump said Iran could face a “very heavy blow.” He said that due to Iran’s actions, the US was “seriously considering” expanding the scope of strikes, including some areas and groups that had not previously been listed as targets. Iranian President Pezeshkian delivered a speech calling for national unity to defend Iran and said Iran would never surrender unconditionally. (Bullish ★) Mediterranean Shipping Company said it would levy an emergency bunker surcharge on all cargo shipped from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to the Indian subcontinent, the Red Sea, and East Africa. (Bullish ★)
