SMM aluminium morning meeting summary on June 25
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Update time : 2025-06-25 17:19:05
Futures Market: Last night, the most-traded SHFE aluminium 2508 contract opened at RMB 20,300 per tonne, with a high of RMB 20,310 per tonne, a low of RMB 20,240 per tonne, and closed at RMB 20,270 per tonne. The trading volume was 40,000 lots, and the open interest was 251,000 lots. Last night, LME aluminium opened at USD 2,569.5 per tonne, with a high of USD 2,570.5 per tonne, a low of USD 2,556 per tonne, and closed at USD 2,559 per tonne.
Macro: (1) Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire! The Supreme National Security Council of Iran issued a statement announcing a ceasefire with "Israel and its supporters." (Bearish ★) (2) Fed Chairman Powell stated in his congressional testimony that the Fed is currently in a favourable position to be patient and wait for a clearer understanding of the economic trajectory before considering adjusting its monetary policy stance. However, he did not rule out the possibility that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be less than expected or the possibility of an earlier interest rate cut. US President Trump again called on Powell, stating that the Fed should cut interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points. (Neutral ★) (3) The central bank and six other departments jointly issued the "Guidance on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption," proposing 19 key measures in six aspects: supporting the enhancement of consumption capacity, expanding financial supply in the consumption sector, tapping and releasing residents' consumption potential, promoting the improvement of consumption supply efficiency, optimising the consumption environment, and ensuring policy support. (Bullish ★)
Fundamentals: (1) According to SMM statistics, as of June 24, the inventory of aluminium ingots in Guangdong was 154,000 tonnes; in Wuxi, it was 109,000 tonnes; and in Gongyi, it was 65,000 tonnes. The total inventory in these three locations was 328,000 tonnes, an increase of 4,000 tonnes from the previous trading day. (Bearish ★) (2) According to SMM statistics, regarding the inventory of aluminium billets in two domestic locations, the inventory of aluminium billets in Guangdong was 64,200 tonnes, and in Wuxi, it was 19,500 tonnes, totaling 84,000 tonnes, a decrease of 200 tonnes M-o-M. (Bearish ★) (3) According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis were 1.67 million tonnes, down 6.9 per cent Y-o-Y. Among them, the imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis in May were 350,000 tonnes, up 14.7 per cent Y-o-Y and down 5.4 per cent M-o-M. (Neutral ★)
